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Decision Analytic Modelling Methods for Economic Evaluation - Foundations

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University of Glasgow
Contact Provider
18 hours over 3 days
Short Course
(See Description)
Health economists, statisticians, health service researchers
Hilton Glasgow Grosvenor, 1-9 Grosvenor Terrace, Great Western Road, Glasgow, G12 0TA, Strathclyde, United Kingdom

This is a two-day course providing an introduction to the principles and practice of decision modelling for economic evaluation in health. This course is a collaboration between the University of Glasgow and the Centre for Health Economics at the University of York.

The course is aimed at health economists and those health professionals with experience of health economics who wish to develop skills and knowledge in decision analysis for purposes of cost effectiveness analysis. It is designed for participants who are familiar with the basic principles of economic evaluation who wish to build, interpret and appraise decision models. It is envisaged that participants will currently be undertaking economic evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, consultancy, academia or the health service.

Teaching methods : A mixture of presentations from members of the Faculty, together with computer-based exercises using MS Excel on PCs provided. All exercises will be supported by Faculty and a group of tutors.

Objectives : By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

  • consider the role of decision modelling in economic evaluation to guide decision making
  • use the basic building blocks of decision analysis such as joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
  • implement the principles of conceptual modelling as a way of planning a model
  • understand the strengths and weaknesses of the decision tree model and build such a model in Excel
  • understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Markov model and build such a model in Excel
  • think critically about the structure of decision models in particular situations and apply these appropriately
  • implement key generic analytic steps in decision analysis such as evidence identification and basic synthesis, sensitivity analysis and reporting results

Prerequisites : Participants would be expected to have attended a general course in economic evaluation such as York expert workshops offered by the University of York. The course will be 'hands-on' and participants will be expected to bring a laptop computer (and mouse) with Microsoft Excel for use throughout the course. A familiarity with Microsoft Excel is essential.

Outline programme : Please note that the exact programme is subject to change although the material covered will remain largely the same

  • Introduction, policy context and purpose of decision analysis:
  • Module 1: Decision trees for therapeutics and diagnostics
    • key building blocks of modelling e.g. joint and conditional probabilities and expected values
    • basic decision trees structures
    • building a decision tree model in Excel
    • modelling diagnostic decision problems
    • calculating the value of diagnostic information
    • Further analytics: evidence synthesis, presentation, sensitivity analysis and heterogeneity
  • Module 2: Markov modelling
    • principles of Markov cohort models
    • key issues and simplifications
    • parameterisation of Markov models
    • programming a Markov model in Excel
  • Module 3: Model planning
    • defining a decision problem and assessing modelling implications
    • defining boundaries for a model
    • selecting between alternative model structures and types
    • assessing appropriate level of model complexity

COST : Commercial sector - £1200 Public/Academic sector - £760

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